ผู้เขียน หัวข้อ: Forex Trading Strategies 12-8-09  (อ่าน 834 ครั้ง)

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Forex Trading Strategies 12-8-09
« เมื่อ: 11 สิงหาคม 2009, 22:39:11 PM »
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Yen Rallies On China's Disappointing Economic Data

The greenback was lower versus the yen but higher against the commodity currencies on Tuesday as risk aversion increased. China's economic data disappointed investors, pushing stocks and commodities lower. The S&P 500 fell 12.75 points to 994.35 ahead of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee release. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its monetary stance unchanged. It is still too early to raise interest rates or suggest such a move. The Fed is likely to cautiously upgrade the US economic outlook but unlikely to exit its quantitative easing policy. The euro rose modestly even though Germany's consumer-price inflation posted the first annual decline since 1987. Sterling fell ahead of Wednesday's Bank of England inflation report that may warn of prolonged deflation in the UK. The Australian dollar was pressured by worries about the Chinese economic growth outlook and falling commodity prices. The Canadian dollar declined as energy prices fell and Canada's housing starts unexpectedly decreased.

The yen rallied against all major currencies as risk aversion improved. Global stocks fell and world economic recovery hopes were dented as China's industrial production and exports were more sluggish than expected and lending declined. The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.10% and said the Japanese economy has stopped worsening. The USD/JPY plunged today after failing to penetrate the short-term downtrend yesterday. The pair is likely to test the support from the short-term uptrend. A break of either support or resistance is likely to determine the short-term direction for the pair.



Financial and Economic News and Comments


US & Canada

    * US nonfarm productivity in Q2 2009 jumped at a higher-than-expected 6.4% annual rate, the most since Q3 2003, preliminary Q2 figures from the Labor Department showed, after a downwardly revised 0.3% rate in Q1. Nonfarm productivity advanced 1.8% y/y. Real (inflation-adjusted) compensation per hour in the nonfarm sector declined at a 1.1% annual rate in Q2, but increased 2.2% y/y. Unit labor costs fell more than anticipated at a 5.8% annual rate in Q2, a pace of decline not seen since Q2 2001, after decreasing a downwardly revised 2.7% in Q1. Unit labor costs declined 0.6% y/y. Manufacturing productivity rose at a 5.3% rate in Q2.



     * US wholesale inventories declined a more-than-expected 1.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted $393.9 billion in June after a downwardly revised 1.2% m/m slide in May, data from the Commerce Department showed. Wholesale sales advanced 0.4% m/m to a seasonally adjusted $313.1 billion, following May's upwardly revised 0.4% m/m gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio posted the third consecutive drop in June, declining to 1.26 from May's 1.28. Wholesale inventories fell 10.3% y/y in June, while wholesale sales dropped 21.0% y/y



    *  The seasonally adjusted annual rate of Canadian housing starts unexpectedly declined to 132,100 units in July from downwardly revised 137,800 units in June, according to figures released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation


Europe

    * Germany's consumer price index (CPI) was slightly revised upward for July while the harmonised consumer price index (HICP), calculated for European purposes, was slightly revised downward, final July data from the Federal Statistical Office confirmed. The CPI was unchanged m/m in July but declined 0.5% y/y, the first annual drop since March 1987. The HICP decreased 0.1% m/m and 0.7% y/y.
    * Germany's wholesale prices unexpectedly declined 0.5% m/m in July after a 0.9% m/m increase in June, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed. July wholesale prices fell a more-than-expected 10.6% y/y, the largest fall since records began in 1968, following June's 8.8% y/y drop.
    * The UK trade deficit unexpectedly widened to ₤6.5 billion ($10.7 billion) in June from a revised ₤6.2 billion in May, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed. Exports increased 1.4% m/m, outpaced by a 2.2% m/m rise in imports. The trade deficit with non-EU countries widened more than expected to ₤3.6 billion from May's revised ₤3.2 billion.
    * UK house prices declined a less-than-expected 10.7% y/y in June after falling 12.5% y/y in May, according to data released by the Department of Communities and Local Government. The mix-adjusted average house price was at £191,423 in June. House prices increased 2.6% in the quarter ending June, compared with a 3.8% decline in the quarter ending March.
    * The seasonally-adjusted net price balance of surveyors reporting increasing rather than decreasing UK house prices narrowed to -8.1% in July, the best reading since August 2007, from a revised -17.6% in June, a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed, indicating the UK housing market is improving.
    * UK retail sales gained 1.8% y/y on a like-for-like basis and 3.6% y/y on a total basis in July, slightly better than June data, the British Retail Consortium reported.


Asia-Pacific

    * The NAB Australian sentiment index rose to 10 in July from 4 in June, indicating Australia's business sentiment climbed to the highest level since August 2007, National Australia Bank Ltd. reported. The business conditions index improved to 1 in July from -2 in June. The employment index increased to -5 from -7.
    * The Japanese consumer confidence index excluding one-person households rose more than expected to 39.4 in July from 37.6 in June, indicating Japan's household sentiment climbed for a seventh consecutive month, according to data from the Cabinet Office. The index has improved every month since December's record-low 26.2, adding to Japanese economic recovery signs; however, a number below 50 means pessimists outnumber optimists. Including one-person households, the consumer confidence index increased to 39.7 from June's 38.1.
    * The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.10%, as forecast. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said Japan's economy recovery is likely to be weak. 'Even if we have a recovery, I don't think its strength will be impressive,' Shirakawa said, asserting that 'I can't be confident about the strength of final demand after inventory adjustments and policy measures run their course.'
    * China's industrial production rose 10.8% y/y in July on record loans and stimulus spending after a 10.7% y/y rise in June, the Statistics Bureau said.
    * China's exports dropped 23.0% y/y in July after a 21.4% y/y decrease in June, while imports slid 14.9% y/y following June's 13.2% y/y decline, the Customs Bureau said. The trade surplus widened to $10.63 billion in July from $8.25 billion in June.



    *  China's new loans dropped to 355.9 billion yuan ($52 billion) in July from 1.53 trillion yuan in June, the People's Bank of China said.
    * The Bank of Korea left the 7-day repurchase rate unchanged at a record-low 2.00% for a sixth straight month.
"Wish you good trading"