ผู้เขียน หัวข้อ: Forex Trading Strategies 7-9-09  (อ่าน 926 ครั้ง)

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Forex Trading Strategies 7-9-09
« เมื่อ: 06 กันยายน 2009, 23:52:34 PM »
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Dollar at Critical Juncture

    * The dollar fell against most major currencies as risk appetite improved and US equity prices rose. The pace of US job losses slowed to 216K in August while the unemployment rate hit a 26-year-high 9.7%. Although bad, the numbers are consistence with a recovering economy as labor figures usually lag the overall economy. Private-sector payrolls in August fell 198K, the smallest fall in a year and smaller than a 207K drop in December 2001, the first month of the previous expansion. The S&P 500 rose 13.16 points to 1,016.40 ahead of the long Labor Day weekend. The yen fell on increasing risk appetite, while the European currencies rose. The commodity currencies were particularly strong. The Australian dollar closed above 0.85 for the first time in a year and the Canadian dollar appreciated, supported by stronger-than-expected employment and business sentiment.

    * The dollar index fell as risk appetite rose. Highly correlated with equity markets, the dollar index has been trading in a narrow range the last two weeks. The index is currently between important support and resistance and a penetration of either one will likely lead to a big move. Historic seasonality favors a strengthening dollar as we enter a period when the dollar is usually strong. If the US stock market continues its ascent next week, the dollar index will likely test the 76-handle support. On the other hand, a stock market correction is likely to break the dollar index’ downtrend resistance.




Financial and Economic News and Comments


US & Canada


    * US nonfarm payrolls fell a less-than-expected 216,000 in August, their smallest fall in a year, fewer than a revised 276,000 drop in July, according to data from the Labor Department. Payrolls continued to decline in most key sectors. The largest payroll losses were in construction (-65,000) and manufacturing (-63,000), while health and education was the strongest sector (+52,000). Job losses in retail and business services narrowed substantially. The unemployment rate rose more than expected to 9.7% in August, the highest level since 1983, from 9.4% in July. Average hourly earnings increased a more-than-expected 0.3% m/m, to $18.65 in August, and rose 2.6% y/y. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 33.1. Overall, the employment figures indicate the pace of job losses eased considerably in August with US labor market conditions remaining difficult. In the previous two recessions, the unemployment rate kept rising well over a year even after the recessions ended. Thus, it will take some time for a US economic recovery to translate into job gains.



     * Canada’s employment unexpectedly rose a robust 27,100 in August, the first gain in four months, after falling 44,500 in July, figures from Statistics Canada showed. The August employment gain was led by a 30,600 rise in part-time employment, while full-time positions declined 3,500. The unemployment rate increased to 8.7%, the highest since January 1998, from July’s 8.6%.



Europe

    * Switzerland’s consumer prices posted a slight 0.1% m/m increase in August after a 0.7% m/m decrease in July, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office said. August CPI fell 0.8% y/y, following July’s 1.2% y/y slide.


Asia-Pacific

    * Japan’s capital spending continued its drop in Q2 2009, falling a less-than-expected 21.7% y/y, after a 25.3% y/y slide in Q1, data from the Ministry of Finance showed. Capital spending excluding software decreased 22.2% y/y after Q1’s record 25.4% y/y drop. Profits fell 53.0% y/y in Q2 after a record 69.0% y/y plunge in Q1.


FX Strategy Update
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